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By Mark McGillivray (eds.)

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What most of these projections show is that the developing world as a whole is ‘off track’ with respect to a number of targets and many countries will fall far short. Chapter 2 examines the soundness of these somewhat dire projections. On the 16 Mark McGillivray basis of this examination, it concludes inter alia that many of the gains achieved in the outcomes targeted by the MDGs will continue into the new millennium, although not usually fast enough to achieve the ambitious targets set by goals.

It uses a relatively new cross-country data set to estimate: (i) the strength of the links between a number of MDG target and related variables, including health, educational status and access to water and sanitation; and (ii) the extent to which aid impacts on these variables. The chapter differs from previous studies of links between wellbeing variables and investigations of aid effectiveness by analysing data for different population subgroups in each country, thus avoiding a number of drawbacks of using national-level data.

Except for protracted conflict, smaller shocks also have short-lasting effects. But many low-income countries are vulnerable to very frequent small shocks, the cumulative impact of which seriously undermines poverty reduction efforts. More seriously still, there are strong grounds for believing there will be a major reversal, possibly related to either global conflict or environmental catastrophe, before the middle of this century. A1) where X is a vector of determinants comprising one or more variables.

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